Santa Clara Valley REO » real estate statistics

Weekly Real Estate Market Update

vbrasil — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 23:27:15 +0000

Spotting trends in the market is certainly the way to find the market bottom of the Santa Clara Valley real estate market. In this post I am looking specifically at Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Los Altos, Saratoga, Los Gatos, and Los Altos markets. Looking at Sales and Inventory information to get an idea of how inventory is moving or not moving.

Santa Clara Started the year off great compared to last year’s figures. The last two weeks however have failed to follow that trend and it appears that this years inventory figures have just barely passed up last years numbers for the same period last year. Sales are about the same. This may be a sign of higher inventory this year and more price drops to come.

Moutain View continues on the same trend. About double the inventory of last years number and half the sales. We should definitely be expecting price drops in Mountain View.

The same for Cupertino. Showing no signs of slow down in increase home inventory and although sales are not too far behind last years levels the doubled increase in inventory is sure to increase days on market and lead to further price decreases.

It seems as though sunnyale has been fairly consistend this year. Eventhough the sales figures are slightly down versus last year and inventory is about 10% higher Sunnyvale may experience a moderate price drop.

Home inventory in Los Gatos is continuing to ramp up as sales stay steady. More signs the Los Gatos home market still has some more room to come down.

The highend home market in Saratoga continues to suffer. Sales are half last years numbers and inventory is doubled. A sure sign prices are going to come down.

Los Altos is no different. Double the inventory and only half the number of home sales compared to last years numbers. More price drops in Los Altos.

Home Inventory Update Santa Clara County

vbrasil — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 15:29:16 +0000

	The Santa Clara home market sales continues to perform better than last years numbers. So far this year 61 homes have sold versus last year’s 38 during the same time period. Inventory numbers are about the same across the boad, and will start picking up. More likely to see some further price decreases, but not signification price decreases for Santa Clara homes.
	Sunnyvale numbers are not too far off from last year. Sunnyvale got off to a great start but has slowed down in the last two weeks. Also inventory just a about 10% over last years figures. Again expect some more price drops as inventory climbs and days on market increases.
	Mountain View we see quite a large increase in inventory. Comparatively speaking Mountain View has low inventory numbers but they are about 40% up from last year. Sales are down as well. Indication that Mountain View prices have not dropped significantly.
	Moving on to the higher end we see double the inventory in Los Altos and roughly half the sales. Los Altos will need a likely drop in prices to move inventory.
	Much like Los Altos, Saratoga is experiencing the same phenomenon. Double the inventory half the sales. Certainly not a good start for Saratoga and will likely see some significant price drops this year.
	Cupertino has also experienced a slow down. Inventory has doubled and sales are half of what last years numbers were. Although inventory is much higher sales are about steady. Expect prices to drop further in Cupertino.
	Los Gatos inventory is over 50% higher than last year’s numbers. Sales however have been very consistent with last year’s sales. As inventory increases expect the prices to come down. Continue to monitor these numbers for price performance in Santa Clara County

Inventory: Its Growing in Santa Clara County

vbrasil — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 04:01:13 +0000

They key to spotting a market bottom is by following the home inventory levels of a specific market. Once the inventory of homes reaches a top and starts to declince that means the buyers are beginning to overtake the sellers, and hence supply and demand are changing. Here we take a look at the recent historical level of inventory in a few areas of the Santa Clara Valley.

Home inventory levels for Santa Clara have been climbing every year since 2005. Levels top off in the summer forming a plateau, typical of the real estate cycle we experience here in Santa Clara Valley. Every subsequent year the number of unsold homes have carries over increasing the number of homes for sale in Santa Clara. In 2007 we experienced a large increase of Inventory. As the average humber of homes increase, so does the average days on market, and prices begin to drop.

Sunnyvale’s home inventory performance is similar to Santa Clara. Again inventory levels rise, toping out in the summer and then falling in the Winter. Home inventory levels have remained fairly stable through 2005 and 2007, but in 2008 average inventory of homes in Sunnyvale stayed steady over the winter, and increased substantially in 2008.

Cupertino home inventory stayed stable in 2005 and 2006, and actually dropped in 2007. Again we notice the plateaus in the summer months followed by steep drops in the winter. Home inventory levels have returned to 2005 and 2006 highs.

If we look at Los Altos and Saratoga home inventory charts we see similar patternes to Cupertino. With average home inventory dropping in 2007 and increasing in 2008. This we can attribute to the higher end or luxury home market performance in 2007 which can be closely tied to the NASDAQ which also peaked in 2007.

Monitoring these inventory levels and when they start to change will be the first step in determining the real estate market bottom for the Santa Clara Valley.

Pending Sales Santa Clara County – Real Estate Market Indicator

vbrasil — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 17:02:28 +0000

I always review the Santa Clara County home sales at the end of the week by checking the pending sales. This is a good way of checking the strength of the market in terms of buying activity. I usually compare from the previous year’s figures to gauge performance. It appears that 2009 has started out very positively, well at least better than 2008.

Santa Clara sales for the week are up 50%, Cupertino also higher, Sunnyvale as well with over 50%, Mountain View also an increase. When we view the higher end Markets of Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Los Altos, they experienced decreases this year. Part of that I think we can attribute to price gains that these areas experienced in 2008 and have just recently felt the slow down. Price adjustments may have to be made in these high cost areas in order for sales to increase.

The next item to keep an eye out for will be inventory. The combination of housing (supply) and sales (demand) will determine really market performance for the valley. As inventory starts to increase we will see increased sales, whether or not those increased sales will keep up with the pace of inventory will determine price performance, and that’s everyone big question this year, how will prices perform. If you are curious about market performance there is no better way than to subscribe to my Altos Reports for your specific Zip Code. You can do so on the side bar. These reports and show you indicators on where the market is heading.